“The only way I’m getting out of here — they’re going to have to come talk to me and tell me something else. Simple as that. … I ain’t said nothing about leaving, nor will I. I’m a Twin.” - Byron Buxton, face of the Twins franchise, being a legend in the face of trade rumors.
🎙️ Leading Off
Hate to do it but we’re going to talk labor economics below. On a Friday. Yikes. Fortunately, golf is happening and Shinnecock Hills is hosting the US Open. Bandon Dunes mastermind Mike Keiser has one development principle and it helped him discover world class in Oregon. You ready? From Keiser: dunes plus sand equals great golf. And from that mantra, destination golf exploded across the country. Whistling Straits. Nebraska’s Sand Hills. Streamsong. Keiser looked at Shinnecock and said: damn, nice jawn, let’s bring it West. From there, like all American innovation, what was guarded by platinum gates worked its way down the value chain and into the mainstream. As long as you pony up $400 for a tee time.
⚾️ Hard In The Paint
MLB’s owners leaked part 2 of their Demands ahead of baseball’s upcoming labor negotiations. It’d be nice if these leaks had a calendered drop cadence. Let’s make a show of it.
The highlights:
Shrinking the draft from 20 to 12 rounds.
International draft for non-North American teenagers.
Shrinking bonus pool for drafted candidates.
No HS players eligible for the draft.
These are all horrible ideas in so many directions that it’s a challenge to coherently disprove them. What is actually happening is that owners are likely to budge on a handful of other asks so that they can sneak these measures through.
These are tough points for players to hold firm on. Effectively, the impact of these proposals don’t matter to any active union members. Union members aren’t 1000% incentivized to fight for these issues because they mostly matter to current 16 year olds.
What’s so terrible about these concepts? On the surface, a shrinking minor league will ultimately choke the talent level at the Big League level. Baseball player development is the least linear of the major sports. The NBA is full of 21 or early 20’s players that have no business in college. Which is fine, because they’re in the pros. Football has all the infrastructure of college ball to develop talent, and rookies frequently make an immediate impact. Baseball requires additional seasoning, and is flooded with guys who only put it all together after turning 24 or 25. Having a 12 round draft is a stepping stone to killing off Single-A. Without the bottom levels, guys will call it quits at 21 or 22 if there simply isn’t a roster spot in Double-A.
Beyond that, and this is my biggest beef, owners are steadfast on saving about $150m annually with these changes. That’s maybe $5m per team. I absolutely love pretending like $5m isn’t a big number and I’m telling you, it’s not. This labor negotiation exercise from ownership’s perspective is entirely about controlling costs. Altogether, that’s their right, but for some reason, they seem to be ignoring that franchises are valued on top line revenue multiples far more than bottom line profitability numbers. Does that make a franchise more of a store-of-value asset and less of an operating business? Maybe. That’s for bankers to describe to billionaires. We know that almost all of ownership’s angst is being driven by franchise valuations under performing relative to the NBA or NFL. But we just saw the Padres sell for nearly $4b with underwhelming financials. Why? Because they rake in money. The Seidler family’s investment in players and competitiveness paid off handsomely for them even if they didn’t finish off too many profitable years. So we have to risk a work stoppage because owners are squeezing the bottom line when they can shove the value of their asset north by focusing on the top line? Doesn’t feel right. Gunna have to get on the horn with my money guy to sort this out. For now though, back to golf. Heard there’s soccer on too. Would be shame to lose baseball for awhile because the sports world keeps turning.
📻 Over The Air
📡 JumboTron: Tonight’s Must Watch
All times PST
USA vs Australia, 12:00pm Fox
Scotland vs Morocco, 3:00pm Fox
Cardinals vs Royals, 5:10pm Apple TV, Border War?
☎️ The Phone Line
Best thing on the timeline today:
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Walkup Song
Walkup Song
Zach Top
For hoping the weather heats up in the Hamptons:
Spotify